2009IraqProvincialElectionsSpecialReport

Backgrounder: The 2009 Iraq Provincial Elections

Legal Framework

In February 2008, the Iraqi Parliament passed a Provincial Powers Act by a majority of one. It included giving the Prime Minister the power to dismiss a governor of a province, a measure that would have left considerable power in the hands of the Shi'a dominated central government in Baghdad. The Act required a Provincial Elections Law to be passed within the next 90 days and for elections to be held no later than the beginning of October 2008.

The Presidency Council initially referred the law back, saying it did not comply with the constitutional rights of governorates. It was reported that vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, whose Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council party is strong in many southern Iraqi governorate councils, particularly objected. However, the Council reversed its position following protests from the Sadrist Movement, saying they would instead seek changes to the law before it came into force.

In July 2008 the Iraqi Election Commission proposed postponing the elections until December because delays in passing the election law had left too little time to prepare. The Provincial Elections bill was approved by the Council of Representatives on 22 July 2008.The Kurdistan Alliance walked out over a clause making Kirkuk Governorate council a power-sharing arrangement. The next day the Presidency Council of Iraq, consisting of President Jalal Talabani, who is Kurdish, Vice-President Adel Abdul Mahdi, a Shi'ite Arab, and Vice-President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni Arab, unanimously agreed to reject the bill because of the Kirkuk clause, and send it back to the Council of Representatives to reconsider.

The second draft was ratified by the Presidency Council on 7 October 2008, who stated that a minority clause may be added later.A minority clause was added on 3 November.

Electoral System

The previous Governorate and national elections in Iraq have been held under a "Closed list" electoral system, whereby voters select a party or coalition and the party or coalition selects the individual parliamentarian.

The new election will be held under an "Open list" system, whereby voters may select either a party or an individual candidate; the candidates elected from a list will be those that get the most individual votes from among that list. The system also promotes the representation of women as if the top two people elected from a list are men the subsequent person elected will be the woman with the most votes.

The Status of Kirkuk Province

The original draft proposed delaying the election in Kirkuk Governorate until after the referendum to decide its precise status has been held. However, a group of Turkmen and Arab MPs proposed a power-sharing clause, establishing a provincial council consisting of ten Kurds, ten Arabs, ten Turkmens and two Assyrians. This clause was included in the draft election bill put to the Iraqi Council of Representatives in July 2008, and led to the Kurdish parties walking out in protest, complaining "If you already pick the seats before the election, why vote?" The law was nonetheless approved on 22 July 2008. However, President Jalal Talabani, who is Kurdish, and Vice-President Adel Abdul Mahdi, a Shi'ite Arab, have agreed they would reject the bill, and hence it would be sent back to the Council of Representatives to reconsider.

Parliamentary summer recess started on 30 July 2008, but a special session was called for 3 August 2008 to find a solution to the Kirkuk issue. At that meeting, no solution was reached; at another meeting on 4 August 2008, lawmakers postponed the session to 5 August 2008, and on that date to 6 August 2008. It was then postponed to 9 September 2008, with a committee working on a compromise solution until then. At that session, no resolution was reached, and negotiations continued on 10 September 2008 in the form of a special six-member panel formed for this occasion. The law was finally passed on 24 September 2008 and the election is expected to be held by 31 January 2009; the compromise was that Kirkuk would be dealt with separately, and elections in Kirkuk and the three Kurdish autonomous provinces will be held at a later time. A special panel was to work on a solution on Kirkuk and report back by 31 March 2009.

The United Nations Special Representative for Iraq, Staffan de Mistura proposed holding elections in all governorates except Kirkuk, and deferring the Kirkuk elections for six months in order to find an acceptable compromise. A draft bill based on this proposal was debated on 6 August and accepted by the Kurdistani Alliance but opposed by the Iraqi Turkmen Front, Iraqi Accord Front and Sadrist Movement who objected to the draft law's reference to the Kirkuk status referendum and insisted on delaying the entire elections until a solution was found.

Minorities

Under Article 50 of the draft Elections law, religious minorities such as Christians and Yazidis would be reserved a number of seats in the provincial assemblies. This clause was removed in the final draft, with legislators citing a lack of census data for determining the appropriate number of seats. Five thousand Christians demonstrated in Mosul against this change, saying it was a "marginalisation of their rights" and the head of the Assyrian Church of the East wrote to the Presidency Council asking them to veto the law. [27][28]

Prime Minister al-Maliki said he was concerned and called on parliament and the Iraqi High Electoral Commission to "remove all the concerns, injustice and the sense of exclusion felt by some segments of Iraqi society" [29]. Kurdish MP Mahmoud Othman called on the Presidency Council of Iraq to use its review process to force an amendment to include a minority quota, saying "The rule of the majority means there should be protection of the minorities"[30] A Sadrist leader also said Christians should be allowed to "contribute to the building of the Iraqi state" and the removal of this clause "threatened the unity of Iraq"[31] The UN Special Envoy also criticised the removal of the minorities clause.

A minority clause was added on 3 November 2008, although it only provided for six special seats (three for Christians, one each for Yazidi, Mandean and Shabak) instead of twelve as recommended by the UN. The Christians got a seat each in Baghdad, Nineveh and Basra, the Yazidi and Shabak in Nineveh, and the Mandeans in Baghdad.

Female quota

Original drafts of the Election law included a guarantee that the elected councils would contain at least 25% women. However, the law passed stated instead that the would be "a woman at the end of every three winners". The Electoral Commission has interpreted this to mean that where a list wins more than two seats in a particular governorate, the third seat will be awarded to a woman on the party's list. Given the large number of parties contesting the election, many of whom are expected to win one or two seats, female MPs raised concerns that the change in language has weakened this provision.

Electoral system

Militias

In March, the government of Nouri al-Maliki moved against militias allied to the Sadrist Movement in Basrah Governorate. Sadrists accused Maliki of trying to weaken them ahead of the polls, but Maliki claimed he was just targeting "criminal gangs". Following this, Maliki said he would disqualify any parties from the election who refused to disband their militia. In April the cabinet agreed on a draft elections law, which included a clause banning parties with militias.

Campaign

The security situation in this election was much better than in previous elections. Candidates felt safe enough to canvass for votes for the first time, while the 2005 elections saw little public campaigning

Sunni Arab Areas

The current Governorate councils were elected in the Iraqi Governorate elections of 2005, which were boycotted by Sunni Arabs, resulting in several Sunni Arab-majority provinces such as Ninawa Governorate and Salahudin being run by Kurdish and Shi'ite parties. As Sunni Arab parties have since decided to participate in elections, these elections are expected to give them more representation.

The elections are also expected to develop electoral competition within the Sunni Arab population between the pro-government Iraqi Accord Front and the new political groups formed out of the anti-al-Qaeda Awakening movement militias. A leading member of the Awakening movement in Baghdad, Abu Azzam al-Tamimi, has formed the Iraqi Dignity Front to contest the elections. The Awakening movement in Anbar has formed the National Front for the Salvation of Iraq. These parties are expected to sweep the Sunni Arab vote in Anbar, Salahuddin, Diyala and Baghdad.

In Ninawa, the Sunni Arab - majority al-Hadba party - which is also backed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - complained of being targeted by Kurdish security forces. A candidate for the Sunni Arab "Iraq for Us" coalition in Ninawa was killed by a gunman who walked into a cafe and shot him.

Shiite Arab Areas

One senior government official said the elections would "redraw the political map of Iraq" while Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi described them as a "major rehearsal for the parliamentary elections" due in 2009-10. An expert from the International Crisis Group predicted a "big shift", with the existing parties established by exiles losing ground to more recently formed parties of people who stayed in Iraq during the rule of Saddam Hussein.

There is also expected to be significant electoral competition between two main Shiite Islamist parties in the government - the Islamic Dawa Party of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of Vice-President Adel Abdul Mahdi. Following the Battle of Basra (2008), the Prime Minister created "support councils" to help with security in the southern provinces and Maliki was accused of using these support councils to build a political base. The Presidency Council of Iraq publicly criticised the Prime Minister in November 2008, saying these support councils were illegal, should be suspended and the money used to support the regular Army and Police.

Competition is also expected between the government Islamist parties and the opposition Sadrist Movement, with some commentators saying Sadrists were expected to win a majority of seats in southern Iraq and parts of Baghdad. The Sadrist Movement supported the Blamelessness and Reconstruction list and the Independent Trend of the Noble Ones

Some commentators predicted there would be a backlast against the incumbant religious parties in favour of more secular parties. Shortly before the election, an inititive was started in Basra Province to convert the province into a Region. The initiative failed to reach 10% of eligible voters in the specified period, meaning it fell.

BFRP Home

The Iraqi Provincial Elections will be held in Iraq January 31, 2009, to replace the local councils in fourteen of the eighteen governorates that were elected in the Iraqi governorates elections of 2005. Approximately 14,431 candidates - including 3,912 women - will contest 444 seats. The candidates come from over 400 parties - 75% of which are newly formed.

Dawa Party

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Iraqi Islamic Party

Kurdish Democratic Party

Patriotic Union

of Kurdistan

Backgrounder Subjects Below:

Legal Framework

Electoral System

Status of Kirkuk

Minorities

Female Quotas

Militias

Campaigns

Iraq Turkmen Front

Iraq Communist

Party

Elections News

Iraq National

Dialogue Party

Iraqi National

Accord Party

~While Iraq's January 31 provincial election returns have not been counted early reports of the elections are beginning to point to the following possible trends:

~Iraq Election Turnout Estimated at 51%

~Violence during the Elections is minimal

~al Maliki's Dawa Party runs strong in

Shiia dominated Southern Iraq

~New Sunni "Awakening" candidates run

strong against Islamic Iraqi Party

~Iraq secularists gain on Islamist parties

~Nineva vote a setback for the Kurds?

Election Returns